Saudi Arabia enters the twenty-first century : the political, foreign policy, economic, and energy dimensions / Anthony H. Cordesman.

Oil and Saudi Progress
Historical Origins
The Political and Foreign Policy Challenges of the Twenty-First Century
The Coming Domestic Challenges
The Economic and Demographic Challenges of the Twenty-First Century
"Oil Crash" and "Oil Boom" in 1996-2001: A Case Study
The Impact of Demographics: A Rising Population Means Declining per Capita Oil Income
The Ongoing Saudi Response
Setting the Pace of Implementation
The Security Challenges of the Twenty-First Century
Territory, Strategic Depth, and Vulnerabilities
Strategic Concerns and Military Requirements
The Problem of Strategic Dependence on the West
Foreign Relations and External Security
Iran and Iraq: The Primary Threats
The Problem of Iran
The Problem of Iraq
Trying to Live with the "Enemy"
The Threat of Iraqi Invasion
Iraq and Asymmetric Warfare
Iraq and Weapons of Mass Destruction
The Saudi Approach to "Dual Containment" and the Overthrow of Saddam Hussein
The Southern Gulf and Yemen
Relations with Yemen
Relations with Oman
Relations with Qatar
Relations with Kuwait
Relations with Bahrain
Relations with the UAE
Saudi Arabia and the GCC
Relations with Israel and Policy Toward the Arab-Israeli Conflict
The Saudi Shift Toward Peace
Peace and the Second Intifada
Crown Prince Abdullah's Peace Proposal
The Arab Summit: Beirut, Lebanon, 2002
The Arab Peace Initiative
Relations with Egypt
Relations with Syria
Relations with Jordan
Relations with the Greater Arab World
Relations with the United States and the West
The Formative Period: 1933-1953
Nasser and Arab Nationalism: 1953-1968
The June 1967 War to the October 1973 War
The October 1973 War to the Fall of the Shah
The Fall of the Shah to the Gulf War
The Gulf War to the Second Intifada and September 11, 2001
Developments Since September 11
Saudi Foreign Policy at the Beginning of the Twenty-First Century
Politics and Internal Stability
The Monarchy, the Majlis Al-Shura, and the Royal Family
Evolution and Stability
Current Prospects for the Succession
The Need for Change in the Next Generation
The Saudi Cabinet or Council of Ministers
The Creation of the Majlis Al-Shura
The Changing Saudi Political System
Political Reform and Opposition
Opposition and Islamic Extremism
Working Within the System: The Role of Saudi "Modernizers"
The Character and Impact of Saudi Puritanism
Putting Saudi Wahhabi and Salafi Beliefs into Perspective
Charity and Extremism: The Flow of Money
Most Islamic Puritanism and Extremism Is Not "Wahhabism"
Islamic Extremism and Saudi Youth
Trying to Co-opt Islamic Extremism: The Rising at the Grand Mosque
Islamic Extremism and the Failure of Co-option in the 1980s and 1990s
Education as a Self-Inflicted Wound
Making Women Part of the Problem, Rather than Part of the Solution
Religious Extremism and Active Political Opposition
Moderate Opposition: Religious Fundamentalism
Hard-line Peaceful Opposition: Sheikh Safar al-Hawali
Nonviolent Islamist Opposition: Salman al-Auda
Nonviolent Islamic Opposition: Sheikh 'Ayd al-Qarni
"Quasi-Violent" Islamist Opposition: The Committee for the Defense of Legitimate Rights (CDLR) and Muhammad al-Mas'ari
Violent Islamic Opposition: The Saudi National Guard Bombing
Militant Islamist Opposition: The Al-Khobar Tragedy
The Initial Course of the Al-Khobar Investigation
Serious Progress in the Al-Khobar Investigation After May 1997
The United States Issues an Indictment
The Role of the Saudi Hezbollah
The Detailed History of the Attack
The Role of Iran and the Threat of an American Follow-up
The Saudis React with Denials
Sunni versus Shi'ite
Militant Saudi Extremists: Osama Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda
Militant Saudi Extremists: Other Threats
Opposition, Extremism, Terrorism, and Saudi Counterterrorism
International Cooperation
Arrests and Questioning of Suspects
Legal and Regulatory Actions, Freezing Terrorist Assets, and Combating Money Laundering
Actions Taken in Regard to Charitable Organizations
Other Initiatives Related to Fighting Terrorism
Looking Toward the Future
Economic, Demographic, and Social Challenges
The Dynamics of Recent Demographic Change
Trends in Total Population
Trends Toward Urbanization
Trends Toward Education
Population Exposure to Media
The Future Pace of Demographic Change
Demographics, Per Capita Income, and Consumption
Historical Patterns of Inadequate Real Economic Growth
Population, Per Capita Income, and Relative Wealth
Redefining "Oil Wealth" in Macroeconomic and Human Terms
Demographic Pressures on Saudi Society and the
Saudi Labor Force
Estimating Future Job Needs
The Labor Force Implications of the Seventh Development Plan
Skill Levels and the Saudi Labor Force
The "Youth Explosion," Foreign Labor, and Saudisation
The Blessings and Curses of Saudisation
Real-World Progress in Saudisation
The Current Level of Progress and Nonprogress in Saudisation
Saudisation and Native Saudi Unemployment
The Impact of the Seventh Development Plan
Saudi Economic Development versus Saudi Education
A Mixed Picture of Strengths and Weaknesses
Progress in the Sixth Development Plan
The Impact of September 11
Progress Planned in the Seventh Development Plan
Looking Toward the Future
Saudi Entitlements, Infrastructure, and Diversification Problems
The Challenge of Subsidies
Pressure on Infrastructure
Electricity as a Case in Point
The Broader Infrastructure Problem
The Interaction Between Demographics, Water, and Agriculture
Water and the Goals of the Seventh Development Plan
The Impact of Agriculture
Sustaining a National Water Problem
Meeting the Kingdom's Economic, Demographic, and Social Challenges
Building True Wealth versus Overdependence on Petroleum and the State
The Saudi Economy at the Edge of the Twenty-First Century
The Key Challenges the Economic Reform Must Meet
Tangible Steps Toward Economic Reform
The Supreme Economic Council
The Economic Consultative Commission (ECC)
The Supreme Council for Petroleum and Minerals (SCPM)
The Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (SAGIA)
A New Foreign Direct Investment Code and Other Measures
The Provisions of the New Foreign Investment Law
Reductions in Taxes
Foreign Ownership of Real Estate
Fund for the Development of Human Resources
"Negative List" of Areas Excluded from Foreign Investment
Saudi Efforts to Join the WTO
The Supreme Commission for Tourism
Saudi Efforts to Use the GCC to Strengthen the Saudi and Gulf Economies
Future Reforms Now Under Consideration
Putting Current Saudi Efforts in Perspective: Plans and Goals versus Actions and Achievements
The History of Saudi Planning: The First through Fourth Development Plans
The Fifth Development Plan and the Gulf War
The Sixth Development Plan
Looking at the Future: The Seventh Development Plan
The Macroeconomic Implications of the Seventh Development Plan
The Labor Force Implications of the Seventh Development Plan
The Challenge of Dependence on Petroleum Exports and Revenues
The Other Impacts of Petroleum Dependence
Political and Military Risks of Saudi Overdependence on Petroleum
"Oil Bust" and "Oil Boom": The Interaction Between OPEC and Market Forces
OPEC, Mild Winter, and Asian Recession: The Oil Crash of 1997
The Wheel Turns: The Oil Crash Turns into an Oil Boom
Oil Wealth and Demographic;s: Understanding the Future Limits
The Challenge of Reducing the Government Sector
Managing and Restructuring the Saudi Budget
Saudi Budgets in the Early- to Mid-1990s
Budgets and the Sixth Development Plan
Budget Deficits, the Oil Crash, and Oil Boom
The Need for Budget Reforms
Foreign and Domestic State Debt
The Limited Impact of the Present Debt Burden
Past History and Future Risk
Privatization and the Private Sector: Intentions versus Implementation
The Seventh Development Plan and Meeting the Challenge of Diversification
The Growth of the Private Sector
The Success of Privatization by Firm and Sector
The Privatization of SABIC and SIPC
The Privatization of Natural Gas
The Privatization of Telecommunications
The Privatization of Saudi Airlines
The Privatization of Postal Services
The Privatization of Electricity
The Privatization of the General Railway Organization
The Privatization of the General Port Authority
Overall Progress in Privatization
Private and Foreign Investment and Banking Reform
Investment and Stock Market Reform
Opening Up Saudi Arabia to Foreign Investment
Broader Goals for Economic and Social Reform
Shaping the Future of the Saudi Petroleum Sector
The Critical Global Importance of Saudi Oil Reserves Saudi Oil Production
The History of Saudi Oil Development and the Role of Aramco
Saudi Oil Production Today
Oil Production and Quotas
Saudi Oil Exports
Expanding Saudi Oil Production
The Case For and Against Foreign Investment in Crude Oil Production
Export Facilities and Distribution
Refining
Refining in Saudi Arabia
Refining Overseas
Petrochemicals
Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC)
Petrochemicals, Privatization, and Foreign Investment
Natural Gas
Saudi Gas Production
Saudi Domestic Gas Use
Foreign Investment in the Gas Sector
Saudi Energy Strategy in the Twenty-First Century
The Strategy in the Seventh Development Plan
The Statements of the Saudi Oil Minister
Longer-Term Saudi Strategy
Shaping Future Saudi Oil Production Capacity and Exports: Western Estimates and Projections
Shaping Future Saudi Oil Production Capacity and Exports: The Saudi Approach
Saudi Ability to Meet Long-Term Increases in Demand
Changes in Saudi Energy Strategy and Investment Policies
The Problem of Oil Prices
The Saudi Debate Over Investment Strategy
Oil Crash Becomes Oil Boom, and Oil Boom Turns to Oil Crunch
Future Need for Foreign Investment in Upstream Oil
Saudi Oil Production Capacity Strategy
The Impact of Limiting Production to Maintain High Prices and Maximize Oil Export Revenues
The Impact of a Maximum Market Share Strategy
Living with Uncertainty, and Doing So with as Little Ideology, and as much Pragmatism, as Possible
Saudi Arabia at the Start of the Twenty-First Century: Key Conclusions
Political Change
Population, Youth, and a Vision of the Future
The Need for a New Social Contract
Oil Wealth or Oil Poverty?
Creating the Need for a New Social Contract
The State Budget, Subsidies, and Welfare
Privatization and Encouraging the Private Sector
Population and Foreign Workers
The West and the Pace of Saudi Modernization