TY - BOOK AU - Cordesman,Anthony H. TI - Saudi Arabia enters the twenty-first century: the political, foreign policy, economic, and energy dimensions SN - 0275979989 (alk. paper) U1 - 953.8053 PY - 2003/// CY - Westport, Conn. PB - Praeger KW - National security KW - Saudi Arabia KW - Petroleum industry and trade KW - Politics and government N1 - Oil and Saudi Progress Historical Origins The Political and Foreign Policy Challenges of the Twenty-First Century The Coming Domestic Challenges The Economic and Demographic Challenges of the Twenty-First Century "Oil Crash" and "Oil Boom" in 1996-2001: A Case Study The Impact of Demographics: A Rising Population Means Declining per Capita Oil Income The Ongoing Saudi Response Setting the Pace of Implementation The Security Challenges of the Twenty-First Century Territory, Strategic Depth, and Vulnerabilities Strategic Concerns and Military Requirements The Problem of Strategic Dependence on the West Foreign Relations and External Security Iran and Iraq: The Primary Threats The Problem of Iran The Problem of Iraq Trying to Live with the "Enemy" The Threat of Iraqi Invasion Iraq and Asymmetric Warfare Iraq and Weapons of Mass Destruction The Saudi Approach to "Dual Containment" and the Overthrow of Saddam Hussein The Southern Gulf and Yemen Relations with Yemen Relations with Oman Relations with Qatar Relations with Kuwait Relations with Bahrain Relations with the UAE Saudi Arabia and the GCC Relations with Israel and Policy Toward the Arab-Israeli Conflict The Saudi Shift Toward Peace Peace and the Second Intifada Crown Prince Abdullah's Peace Proposal The Arab Summit: Beirut, Lebanon, 2002 The Arab Peace Initiative Relations with Egypt Relations with Syria Relations with Jordan Relations with the Greater Arab World Relations with the United States and the West The Formative Period: 1933-1953 Nasser and Arab Nationalism: 1953-1968 The June 1967 War to the October 1973 War The October 1973 War to the Fall of the Shah The Fall of the Shah to the Gulf War The Gulf War to the Second Intifada and September 11, 2001 Developments Since September 11 Saudi Foreign Policy at the Beginning of the Twenty-First Century Politics and Internal Stability The Monarchy, the Majlis Al-Shura, and the Royal Family Evolution and Stability Current Prospects for the Succession The Need for Change in the Next Generation The Saudi Cabinet or Council of Ministers The Creation of the Majlis Al-Shura The Changing Saudi Political System Political Reform and Opposition Opposition and Islamic Extremism Working Within the System: The Role of Saudi "Modernizers" The Character and Impact of Saudi Puritanism Putting Saudi Wahhabi and Salafi Beliefs into Perspective Charity and Extremism: The Flow of Money Most Islamic Puritanism and Extremism Is Not "Wahhabism" Islamic Extremism and Saudi Youth Trying to Co-opt Islamic Extremism: The Rising at the Grand Mosque Islamic Extremism and the Failure of Co-option in the 1980s and 1990s Education as a Self-Inflicted Wound Making Women Part of the Problem, Rather than Part of the Solution Religious Extremism and Active Political Opposition Moderate Opposition: Religious Fundamentalism Hard-line Peaceful Opposition: Sheikh Safar al-Hawali Nonviolent Islamist Opposition: Salman al-Auda Nonviolent Islamic Opposition: Sheikh 'Ayd al-Qarni "Quasi-Violent" Islamist Opposition: The Committee for the Defense of Legitimate Rights (CDLR) and Muhammad al-Mas'ari Violent Islamic Opposition: The Saudi National Guard Bombing Militant Islamist Opposition: The Al-Khobar Tragedy The Initial Course of the Al-Khobar Investigation Serious Progress in the Al-Khobar Investigation After May 1997 The United States Issues an Indictment The Role of the Saudi Hezbollah The Detailed History of the Attack The Role of Iran and the Threat of an American Follow-up The Saudis React with Denials Sunni versus Shi'ite Militant Saudi Extremists: Osama Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda Militant Saudi Extremists: Other Threats Opposition, Extremism, Terrorism, and Saudi Counterterrorism International Cooperation Arrests and Questioning of Suspects Legal and Regulatory Actions, Freezing Terrorist Assets, and Combating Money Laundering Actions Taken in Regard to Charitable Organizations Other Initiatives Related to Fighting Terrorism Looking Toward the Future Economic, Demographic, and Social Challenges The Dynamics of Recent Demographic Change Trends in Total Population Trends Toward Urbanization Trends Toward Education Population Exposure to Media The Future Pace of Demographic Change Demographics, Per Capita Income, and Consumption Historical Patterns of Inadequate Real Economic Growth Population, Per Capita Income, and Relative Wealth Redefining "Oil Wealth" in Macroeconomic and Human Terms Demographic Pressures on Saudi Society and the Saudi Labor Force Estimating Future Job Needs The Labor Force Implications of the Seventh Development Plan Skill Levels and the Saudi Labor Force The "Youth Explosion," Foreign Labor, and Saudisation The Blessings and Curses of Saudisation Real-World Progress in Saudisation The Current Level of Progress and Nonprogress in Saudisation Saudisation and Native Saudi Unemployment The Impact of the Seventh Development Plan Saudi Economic Development versus Saudi Education A Mixed Picture of Strengths and Weaknesses Progress in the Sixth Development Plan The Impact of September 11 Progress Planned in the Seventh Development Plan Looking Toward the Future Saudi Entitlements, Infrastructure, and Diversification Problems The Challenge of Subsidies Pressure on Infrastructure Electricity as a Case in Point The Broader Infrastructure Problem The Interaction Between Demographics, Water, and Agriculture Water and the Goals of the Seventh Development Plan The Impact of Agriculture Sustaining a National Water Problem Meeting the Kingdom's Economic, Demographic, and Social Challenges Building True Wealth versus Overdependence on Petroleum and the State The Saudi Economy at the Edge of the Twenty-First Century The Key Challenges the Economic Reform Must Meet Tangible Steps Toward Economic Reform The Supreme Economic Council The Economic Consultative Commission (ECC) The Supreme Council for Petroleum and Minerals (SCPM) The Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (SAGIA) A New Foreign Direct Investment Code and Other Measures The Provisions of the New Foreign Investment Law Reductions in Taxes Foreign Ownership of Real Estate Fund for the Development of Human Resources "Negative List" of Areas Excluded from Foreign Investment Saudi Efforts to Join the WTO The Supreme Commission for Tourism Saudi Efforts to Use the GCC to Strengthen the Saudi and Gulf Economies Future Reforms Now Under Consideration Putting Current Saudi Efforts in Perspective: Plans and Goals versus Actions and Achievements The History of Saudi Planning: The First through Fourth Development Plans The Fifth Development Plan and the Gulf War The Sixth Development Plan Looking at the Future: The Seventh Development Plan The Macroeconomic Implications of the Seventh Development Plan The Labor Force Implications of the Seventh Development Plan The Challenge of Dependence on Petroleum Exports and Revenues The Other Impacts of Petroleum Dependence Political and Military Risks of Saudi Overdependence on Petroleum "Oil Bust" and "Oil Boom": The Interaction Between OPEC and Market Forces OPEC, Mild Winter, and Asian Recession: The Oil Crash of 1997 The Wheel Turns: The Oil Crash Turns into an Oil Boom Oil Wealth and Demographic;s: Understanding the Future Limits The Challenge of Reducing the Government Sector Managing and Restructuring the Saudi Budget Saudi Budgets in the Early- to Mid-1990s Budgets and the Sixth Development Plan Budget Deficits, the Oil Crash, and Oil Boom The Need for Budget Reforms Foreign and Domestic State Debt The Limited Impact of the Present Debt Burden Past History and Future Risk Privatization and the Private Sector: Intentions versus Implementation The Seventh Development Plan and Meeting the Challenge of Diversification The Growth of the Private Sector The Success of Privatization by Firm and Sector The Privatization of SABIC and SIPC The Privatization of Natural Gas The Privatization of Telecommunications The Privatization of Saudi Airlines The Privatization of Postal Services The Privatization of Electricity The Privatization of the General Railway Organization The Privatization of the General Port Authority Overall Progress in Privatization Private and Foreign Investment and Banking Reform Investment and Stock Market Reform Opening Up Saudi Arabia to Foreign Investment Broader Goals for Economic and Social Reform Shaping the Future of the Saudi Petroleum Sector The Critical Global Importance of Saudi Oil Reserves Saudi Oil Production The History of Saudi Oil Development and the Role of Aramco Saudi Oil Production Today Oil Production and Quotas Saudi Oil Exports Expanding Saudi Oil Production The Case For and Against Foreign Investment in Crude Oil Production Export Facilities and Distribution Refining Refining in Saudi Arabia Refining Overseas Petrochemicals Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) Petrochemicals, Privatization, and Foreign Investment Natural Gas Saudi Gas Production Saudi Domestic Gas Use Foreign Investment in the Gas Sector Saudi Energy Strategy in the Twenty-First Century The Strategy in the Seventh Development Plan The Statements of the Saudi Oil Minister Longer-Term Saudi Strategy Shaping Future Saudi Oil Production Capacity and Exports: Western Estimates and Projections Shaping Future Saudi Oil Production Capacity and Exports: The Saudi Approach Saudi Ability to Meet Long-Term Increases in Demand Changes in Saudi Energy Strategy and Investment Policies The Problem of Oil Prices The Saudi Debate Over Investment Strategy Oil Crash Becomes Oil Boom, and Oil Boom Turns to Oil Crunch Future Need for Foreign Investment in Upstream Oil Saudi Oil Production Capacity Strategy The Impact of Limiting Production to Maintain High Prices and Maximize Oil Export Revenues The Impact of a Maximum Market Share Strategy Living with Uncertainty, and Doing So with as Little Ideology, and as much Pragmatism, as Possible Saudi Arabia at the Start of the Twenty-First Century: Key Conclusions Political Change Population, Youth, and a Vision of the Future The Need for a New Social Contract Oil Wealth or Oil Poverty? Creating the Need for a New Social Contract The State Budget, Subsidies, and Welfare Privatization and Encouraging the Private Sector Population and Foreign Workers The West and the Pace of Saudi Modernization ER -