TY  - BOOK
AU  - Philip E. Tetlock
TI  - Expert political judgement: how good is it? how can we know?
SN  - 9780691123028
U1  - 320.019 
PY  - 2005///
CY  - New Jersy
PB  - Princeton University Press
KW  - Psychologie politique
KW  - Décision politique
N1  - 

Contents; 
Acknowledgments; 
Preface; 

Chapter 1:  Quantifying the Unquantifiable; 
Chapter 2: The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism; 
Chapter 3: Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge: Foxes Have Better Calibration and Discrimination Scores than Hedgehogs; 
Chapter 4: Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs;
Chapter 5: Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self-subversive Scenarios; 
Chapter 6: The Hedgehogs Strike Back; 
Chapter 7: Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness? 
Chapter 8: Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability

Methodological Appendix; 
Technical Appendix: 
Phillip Rescober and Philip E. Tetlock; 
Index
ER  -