Philip E. Tetlock <br/><br/>
Expert political judgement:   how good is it? how can we know?/ 
Tetlock, Philip E. 
 - New Jersy:  Princeton University Press,  2005. 
 - 321p. 
<br/><br/><br/><br/>Contents; <br/>Acknowledgments; <br/>Preface; <br/><br/>Chapter 1:  Quantifying the Unquantifiable; <br/>Chapter 2: The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism; <br/>Chapter 3: Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge: Foxes Have Better Calibration and Discrimination Scores than Hedgehogs; <br/>Chapter 4: Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs;<br/>Chapter 5: Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self-subversive Scenarios; <br/>Chapter 6: The Hedgehogs Strike Back; <br/>Chapter 7: Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness? <br/>Chapter 8: Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability<br/><br/>Methodological Appendix; <br/>Technical Appendix: <br/>Phillip Rescober and Philip E. Tetlock; <br/>Index. 
<br/><br/><label>ISBN: </label>9780691123028 
<br/><br/><label>Subjects--Topical Terms: </label><br/>Psychologie politique<br/>Décision politique
<br/><br/><label>Dewey Class. No.: </label>320.019  / TET/E