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Expert political judgement: Tetlock, Philip E. how good is it? how can we know?/

By: Philip E. TetlockMaterial type: Text

TextPublication details: New Jersy: Princeton University Press, 2005Description: 321pISBN: 9780691123028Subject(s): Psychologie politique | Décision politiqueDDC classification: 320.019

Contents:

Contents; Acknowledgments; Preface; Chapter 1: Quantifying the Unquantifiable; Chapter 2: The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism; Chapter 3: Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge: Foxes Have Better Calibration and Discrimination Scores than Hedgehogs; Chapter 4: Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs; Chapter 5: Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self-subversive Scenarios; Chapter 6: The Hedgehogs Strike Back; Chapter 7: Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness? Chapter 8: Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability Methodological Appendix; Technical Appendix: Phillip Rescober and Philip E. Tetlock; Index.

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Holdings
Item type	Current library	Call number	Status	Date due	Barcode	Item holds
General Books	Central Library, Sikkim University (Yangang Campus) General Book Section	320.019 TET/E (Browse shelf(Opens below))	Available		P13003

Total holds: 0

Contents;
Acknowledgments;
Preface;

Chapter 1: Quantifying the Unquantifiable;
Chapter 2: The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism;
Chapter 3: Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge: Foxes Have Better Calibration and Discrimination Scores than Hedgehogs;
Chapter 4: Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs;
Chapter 5: Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self-subversive Scenarios;
Chapter 6: The Hedgehogs Strike Back;
Chapter 7: Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness?
Chapter 8: Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability

Methodological Appendix;
Technical Appendix:
Phillip Rescober and Philip E. Tetlock;
Index.

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