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Oil and Saudi Progress<br/>Historical Origins<br/>The Political and Foreign Policy Challenges of the Twenty-First Century<br/>The Coming Domestic Challenges<br/>The Economic and Demographic Challenges of the Twenty-First Century<br/>"Oil Crash" and "Oil Boom" in 1996-2001: A Case Study<br/>The Impact of Demographics: A Rising Population Means Declining per Capita Oil Income<br/>The Ongoing Saudi Response<br/>Setting the Pace of Implementation<br/>The Security Challenges of the Twenty-First Century<br/>Territory, Strategic Depth, and Vulnerabilities<br/>Strategic Concerns and Military Requirements<br/>The Problem of Strategic Dependence on the West<br/>Foreign Relations and External Security<br/>Iran and Iraq: The Primary Threats<br/>The Problem of Iran<br/>The Problem of Iraq<br/>Trying to Live with the "Enemy"<br/>The Threat of Iraqi Invasion<br/>Iraq and Asymmetric Warfare<br/>Iraq and Weapons of Mass Destruction<br/>The Saudi Approach to "Dual Containment" and the Overthrow of Saddam Hussein<br/>The Southern Gulf and Yemen<br/>Relations with Yemen<br/>Relations with Oman<br/>Relations with Qatar<br/>Relations with Kuwait<br/>Relations with Bahrain<br/>Relations with the UAE<br/>Saudi Arabia and the GCC<br/>Relations with Israel and Policy Toward the Arab-Israeli Conflict<br/>The Saudi Shift Toward Peace<br/>Peace and the Second Intifada<br/>Crown Prince Abdullah's Peace Proposal<br/>The Arab Summit: Beirut, Lebanon, 2002<br/>The Arab Peace Initiative<br/>Relations with Egypt<br/>Relations with Syria<br/>Relations with Jordan<br/>Relations with the Greater Arab World<br/>Relations with the United States and the West<br/>The Formative Period: 1933-1953<br/>Nasser and Arab Nationalism: 1953-1968<br/>The June 1967 War to the October 1973 War<br/>The October 1973 War to the Fall of the Shah<br/>The Fall of the Shah to the Gulf War<br/>The Gulf War to the Second Intifada and September 11, 2001<br/>Developments Since September 11<br/>Saudi Foreign Policy at the Beginning of the Twenty-First Century<br/>Politics and Internal Stability<br/>The Monarchy, the Majlis Al-Shura, and the Royal Family<br/>Evolution and Stability<br/>Current Prospects for the Succession<br/>The Need for Change in the Next Generation<br/>The Saudi Cabinet or Council of Ministers<br/>The Creation of the Majlis Al-Shura<br/>The Changing Saudi Political System<br/>Political Reform and Opposition<br/>Opposition and Islamic Extremism<br/>Working Within the System: The Role of Saudi "Modernizers"<br/>The Character and Impact of Saudi Puritanism<br/>Putting Saudi Wahhabi and Salafi Beliefs into Perspective<br/>Charity and Extremism: The Flow of Money<br/>Most Islamic Puritanism and Extremism Is Not "Wahhabism"<br/>Islamic Extremism and Saudi Youth<br/>Trying to Co-opt Islamic Extremism: The Rising at the Grand Mosque<br/>Islamic Extremism and the Failure of Co-option in the 1980s and 1990s<br/>Education as a Self-Inflicted Wound<br/>Making Women Part of the Problem, Rather than Part of the Solution<br/>Religious Extremism and Active Political Opposition<br/>Moderate Opposition: Religious Fundamentalism<br/>Hard-line Peaceful Opposition: Sheikh Safar al-Hawali<br/>Nonviolent Islamist Opposition: Salman al-Auda<br/>Nonviolent Islamic Opposition: Sheikh 'Ayd al-Qarni<br/>"Quasi-Violent" Islamist Opposition: The Committee for the Defense of Legitimate Rights (CDLR) and Muhammad al-Mas'ari<br/>Violent Islamic Opposition: The Saudi National Guard Bombing<br/>Militant Islamist Opposition: The Al-Khobar Tragedy<br/>The Initial Course of the Al-Khobar Investigation<br/>Serious Progress in the Al-Khobar Investigation After May 1997<br/>The United States Issues an Indictment<br/>The Role of the Saudi Hezbollah<br/>The Detailed History of the Attack<br/>The Role of Iran and the Threat of an American Follow-up<br/>The Saudis React with Denials<br/>Sunni versus Shi'ite<br/>Militant Saudi Extremists: Osama Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda<br/>Militant Saudi Extremists: Other Threats<br/>Opposition, Extremism, Terrorism, and Saudi Counterterrorism<br/>International Cooperation<br/>Arrests and Questioning of Suspects<br/>Legal and Regulatory Actions, Freezing Terrorist Assets, and Combating Money Laundering<br/>Actions Taken in Regard to Charitable Organizations<br/>Other Initiatives Related to Fighting Terrorism<br/>Looking Toward the Future<br/>Economic, Demographic, and Social Challenges<br/>The Dynamics of Recent Demographic Change<br/>Trends in Total Population<br/>Trends Toward Urbanization<br/>Trends Toward Education<br/>Population Exposure to Media<br/>The Future Pace of Demographic Change<br/>Demographics, Per Capita Income, and Consumption<br/>Historical Patterns of Inadequate Real Economic Growth<br/>Population, Per Capita Income, and Relative Wealth<br/>Redefining "Oil Wealth" in Macroeconomic and Human Terms<br/>Demographic Pressures on Saudi Society and the<br/>Saudi Labor Force<br/>Estimating Future Job Needs<br/>The Labor Force Implications of the Seventh Development Plan<br/>Skill Levels and the Saudi Labor Force<br/>The "Youth Explosion," Foreign Labor, and Saudisation<br/>The Blessings and Curses of Saudisation<br/>Real-World Progress in Saudisation<br/>The Current Level of Progress and Nonprogress in Saudisation<br/>Saudisation and Native Saudi Unemployment<br/>The Impact of the Seventh Development Plan<br/>Saudi Economic Development versus Saudi Education<br/>A Mixed Picture of Strengths and Weaknesses<br/>Progress in the Sixth Development Plan<br/>The Impact of September 11<br/>Progress Planned in the Seventh Development Plan<br/>Looking Toward the Future<br/>Saudi Entitlements, Infrastructure, and Diversification Problems<br/>The Challenge of Subsidies<br/>Pressure on Infrastructure<br/>Electricity as a Case in Point<br/>The Broader Infrastructure Problem<br/>The Interaction Between Demographics, Water, and Agriculture<br/>Water and the Goals of the Seventh Development Plan<br/>The Impact of Agriculture<br/>Sustaining a National Water Problem<br/>Meeting the Kingdom's Economic, Demographic, and Social Challenges<br/>Building True Wealth versus Overdependence on Petroleum and the State<br/>The Saudi Economy at the Edge of the Twenty-First Century<br/>The Key Challenges the Economic Reform Must Meet<br/>Tangible Steps Toward Economic Reform<br/>The Supreme Economic Council<br/>The Economic Consultative Commission (ECC)<br/>The Supreme Council for Petroleum and Minerals (SCPM)<br/>The Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (SAGIA)<br/>A New Foreign Direct Investment Code and Other Measures<br/>The Provisions of the New Foreign Investment Law<br/>Reductions in Taxes<br/>Foreign Ownership of Real Estate<br/>Fund for the Development of Human Resources<br/>"Negative List" of Areas Excluded from Foreign Investment<br/>Saudi Efforts to Join the WTO<br/>The Supreme Commission for Tourism<br/>Saudi Efforts to Use the GCC to Strengthen the Saudi and Gulf Economies<br/>Future Reforms Now Under Consideration<br/>Putting Current Saudi Efforts in Perspective: Plans and Goals versus Actions and Achievements<br/>The History of Saudi Planning: The First through Fourth Development Plans<br/>The Fifth Development Plan and the Gulf War<br/>The Sixth Development Plan<br/>Looking at the Future: The Seventh Development Plan<br/>The Macroeconomic Implications of the Seventh Development Plan<br/>The Labor Force Implications of the Seventh Development Plan<br/>The Challenge of Dependence on Petroleum Exports and Revenues<br/>The Other Impacts of Petroleum Dependence<br/>Political and Military Risks of Saudi Overdependence on Petroleum<br/>"Oil Bust" and "Oil Boom": The Interaction Between OPEC and Market Forces<br/>OPEC, Mild Winter, and Asian Recession: The Oil Crash of 1997<br/>The Wheel Turns: The Oil Crash Turns into an Oil Boom<br/>Oil Wealth and Demographic;s: Understanding the Future Limits<br/>The Challenge of Reducing the Government Sector<br/>Managing and Restructuring the Saudi Budget<br/>Saudi Budgets in the Early- to Mid-1990s<br/>Budgets and the Sixth Development Plan<br/>Budget Deficits, the Oil Crash, and Oil Boom<br/>The Need for Budget Reforms<br/>Foreign and Domestic State Debt<br/>The Limited Impact of the Present Debt Burden<br/>Past History and Future Risk<br/>Privatization and the Private Sector: Intentions versus Implementation<br/>The Seventh Development Plan and Meeting the Challenge of Diversification<br/>The Growth of the Private Sector<br/>The Success of Privatization by Firm and Sector<br/>The Privatization of SABIC and SIPC<br/>The Privatization of Natural Gas<br/>The Privatization of Telecommunications<br/>The Privatization of Saudi Airlines<br/>The Privatization of Postal Services<br/>The Privatization of Electricity<br/>The Privatization of the General Railway Organization<br/>The Privatization of the General Port Authority<br/>Overall Progress in Privatization<br/>Private and Foreign Investment and Banking Reform<br/>Investment and Stock Market Reform<br/>Opening Up Saudi Arabia to Foreign Investment<br/>Broader Goals for Economic and Social Reform<br/>Shaping the Future of the Saudi Petroleum Sector<br/>The Critical Global Importance of Saudi Oil Reserves Saudi Oil Production<br/>The History of Saudi Oil Development and the Role of Aramco<br/>Saudi Oil Production Today<br/>Oil Production and Quotas<br/>Saudi Oil Exports<br/>Expanding Saudi Oil Production<br/>The Case For and Against Foreign Investment in Crude Oil Production<br/>Export Facilities and Distribution<br/>Refining<br/>Refining in Saudi Arabia<br/>Refining Overseas<br/>Petrochemicals<br/>Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC)<br/>Petrochemicals, Privatization, and Foreign Investment<br/>Natural Gas<br/>Saudi Gas Production<br/>Saudi Domestic Gas Use<br/>Foreign Investment in the Gas Sector<br/>Saudi Energy Strategy in the Twenty-First Century<br/>The Strategy in the Seventh Development Plan<br/>The Statements of the Saudi Oil Minister<br/>Longer-Term Saudi Strategy<br/>Shaping Future Saudi Oil Production Capacity and Exports: Western Estimates and Projections<br/>Shaping Future Saudi Oil Production Capacity and Exports: The Saudi Approach<br/>Saudi Ability to Meet Long-Term Increases in Demand<br/>Changes in Saudi Energy Strategy and Investment Policies<br/>The Problem of Oil Prices<br/>The Saudi Debate Over Investment Strategy<br/>Oil Crash Becomes Oil Boom, and Oil Boom Turns to Oil Crunch<br/>Future Need for Foreign Investment in Upstream Oil<br/>Saudi Oil Production Capacity Strategy<br/>The Impact of Limiting Production to Maintain High Prices and Maximize Oil Export Revenues<br/>The Impact of a Maximum Market Share Strategy<br/>Living with Uncertainty, and Doing So with as Little Ideology, and as much Pragmatism, as Possible<br/>Saudi Arabia at the Start of the Twenty-First Century: Key Conclusions<br/>Political Change<br/>Population, Youth, and a Vision of the Future<br/>The Need for a New Social Contract<br/>Oil Wealth or Oil Poverty?<br/>Creating the Need for a New Social Contract<br/>The State Budget, Subsidies, and Welfare<br/>Privatization and Encouraging the Private Sector<br/>Population and Foreign Workers<br/>The West and the Pace of Saudi Modernization |